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Gold is trying to capitalize on a strong rebound from the previous day off the support of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) or the weekly low. Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may restrain U.S. bond yields and the value of the U.S. dollar. Geopolitical risks arising from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could further limit the decline in the price of gold. The absence of relevant economic releases from the U.S. requires some caution before preparing for a continuation of the price decline from recent highs to historical lows.
From a technical perspective, yesterday’s rebound confirmed strong support in the area of the 50-day SMA. This is now a key pivot point for short-term traders, which, in the case of a decisive breakthrough, could pave the way for an extension of the recent pullback from prices close to historical highs. Further sales below the swing low of the week before last, around $2353, will confirm a bearish bias and pull the price of gold into the zone of the 100-day SMA. A convincing break below the 100-day SMA could shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears. It may also incite aggressive technical selling.
Conversely, the $2430 level may provide some immediate resistance before the horizontal zone of $2448–2450. The next significant obstacle is tied to the area of $2469, above which the price of gold may attempt to challenge the historical maximum reached in July. Following that is the psychological level of $2500, which, if decisively surpassed, will prepare the ground for further short-term upward movement.